*SHORT RANGE FORECAST:* The overall air quality of Delhi is inthe higher end of the poor category,as forecasted. The stubble burning activity in Haryana, Panjab, and nearby border regions are moderate, but the cyclonic circulation developed over northwest Uttar Pradesh and neighborhood is going to impact the transport pathways and marginally improve Delhi's Air quality to middle-end of poor category by tomorrow. The predominant wind direction is predicted to change to southeasterly for the next three days and positively influence Delhi's AQI but within poor to higher end of the moderate category.

*EXTENDED RANGE OUTLOOK:* As per SAFAR extended outlook, further deterioration in AQI of Delhi may start from the fourth week of October. The late monsoon withdrawal is not good for air quality in North India as the time progresses towards winter. During the 4th week of October, the temperature will also start to cool. The anticyclone is expected to restrengthenonly by mid-fourth week and associated clear skies, and sinking motion will make the atmosphere very stable with calm surface winds. Both will lead to stagnant weather conditions (e.g., low wind speeds, descending air, and compressed boundary layer), which favor rapid fine particulate matter formation and accumulation of pollutants. The crisis deepens if it is encountered with any additional internal (like firecrackers) or external emissions (stubble burning) sources. In a landlocked city like Delhi, it may lead to rapid accumulation and may trigger high pollution events. However, if local emissions are controlled, it will be a good check to observe and avoid air quality crises.

  FACTORS AFFECTING DELHI AIR QUALITY :

  Today's most dominating factor to drive Air quality towards deterioration is marked in 'RED'. :

  Favorable means Good; Unfavorable means bad & OK means normal for Air Quality.

(1)  RAINFALL : No – Unfavarobale

(2)  LOCALIZED DUST LIFTING: : Low –Favorable

(3)  LONG DISTANCE DUST TRANSPORT: Low–Favorable

(4)  SURFACE WIND SPEED:Low: Unfavorable

(5)  SURFACE WIND DIRECTION :Southwesterly – Unfavorable

(6)  RELATIVE HUMIDITY: Moderate –Favorable.

(7)  MIXING LAYER HEIGHT:Moderate - Favorable .

(8)  LOCAL TEMPERATURE:Moderate– Favorable

(9)  BIOMASS-FIRE TRANSPORT:Moderate– Unfavorable